╨Ъ╨╡╨╣╨┐ ╨а╨░╤В╨╕╨╛
╨Ю╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╨╡╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╨░ CAPE
CAPE Ratio тАФ ╤Н╤В╨╛ ╨╕╨╜╤Б╤В╤А╤Г╨╝╨╡╨╜╤В ╨╕╨╖╨╝╨╡╤А╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╤А╤Л╨╜╨║╨░, ╨║╨╛╤В╨╛╤А╤Л╨╣ ╨╛╤В╤Б╨╗╨╡╨╢╨╕╨▓╨░╨╡╤В ╨║╨╛╨╗╨╡╨▒╨░╨╜╨╕╤П ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╨╕ ╨║╨╛╨╝╨┐╨░╨╜╨╕╨╕ ╨╖╨░ 10 ╨╗╨╡╤В, ╤З╤В╨╛╨▒╤Л ╨┐╨╛╨╝╨╛╤З╤М ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨░╨╝ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨╜╨╕╨╝╨░╤В╤М ╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╡╨║╤В╨╕╨▓╨╜╤Л╨╡ ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╛╨╜╨╜╤Л╨╡ ╤А╨╡╤И╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П. ╨Ъ╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В ╨┐╨╛╨╝╨╛╨│╨░╨╡╤В ╨╕╨╝ ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╤Б╨║╨░╨╖╨░╤В╤М ╨▒╤Г╨┤╤Г╤Й╨╕╨╡ ╨┤╨▓╨╕╨╢╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╨╜╨░ ╤А╤Л╨╜╨║╨╡ ╨▓ ╤В╨╡╤З╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨╛╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╨╡╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╜╨╛╨│╨╛ ╨┐╨╡╤А╨╕╨╛╨┤╨░ ╨╕ ╨╛╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╨╡╨╗╨╕╤В╤М ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М, ╨║╨╛╤В╨╛╤А╤Г╤О ╨╛╨╜╨╕ ╨╝╨╛╨│╤Г╤В ╨╛╨╢╨╕╨┤╨░╤В╤М ╨▓ ╤Н╤В╨╛╨╝ ╨▒╨╕╨╖╨╜╨╡╤Б-╤Ж╨╕╨║╨╗╨╡.
╨б╨╛╨║╤А╨░╤Й╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╤Ж╨╕╨║╨╗╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕ ╤Б╨║╨╛╤А╤А╨╡╨║╤В╨╕╤А╨╛╨▓╨░╨╜╨╜╨╛╨│╨╛ ╤Б╨╛╨╛╤В╨╜╨╛╤И╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╤Ж╨╡╨╜╤Л ╨╕ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╨╕ ╨┐╤А╨╛╨▓╨╡╤А╤П╨╡╤В ╨│╤А╨░╤Д╨╕╨║ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М╨╜╨╛╤Б╤В╨╕ ╤Д╨╕╤А╨╝╤Л, ╤З╤В╨╛╨▒╤Л ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╤Л ╨╝╨╛╨│╨╗╨╕ ╨╗╨╡╨│╨║╨╛ ╤А╨╡╤И╨╕╤В╤М, ╨┤╨╛╨▓╨╡╤А╤П╤В╤М ╨╗╨╕ ╨║╨╛╨╝╨┐╨░╨╜╨╕╨╕ ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╕. ╨а╨░╤Б╤З╨╡╤В ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╨░ ╨▓╨║╨╗╤О╤З╨░╨╡╤В ╨▓ ╤Б╨╡╨▒╤П ╤А╨░╤Б╤Б╨╝╨╛╤В╤А╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨╝╨╜╨╛╨│╨╛╤З╨╕╤Б╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╜╤Л╤Е ╤Н╨║╨╛╨╜╨╛╨╝╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╤Е ╨╕╨╖╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╣, ╨║╨╛╤В╨╛╤А╤Л╨╡ ╨▓╤А╨╡╨╝╤П ╨╛╤В ╨▓╤А╨╡╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╕ ╨▓╨╗╨╕╤П╤О╤В ╨╜╨░ ╨▒╨╕╨╖╨╜╨╡╤Б.
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╨Ю╨│╨╗╨░╨▓╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡
╨Ъ╨╗╤О╤З╨╡╨▓╤Л╨╡ ╨▓╤Л╨▓╨╛╨┤╤Л
- ╨Ъ╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В CAPE тАФ ╤Н╤В╨╛ ╨┐╨╛╨║╨░╨╖╨░╤В╨╡╨╗╤М ╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨║╨╕, ╨║╨╛╤В╨╛╤А╤Л╨╣ ╤Г╤З╨╕╤В╤Л╨▓╨░╨╡╤В ╤Б╤А╨╡╨┤╨╜╨╕╨╣ ╨┤╨╛╤Е╨╛╨┤ ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╨┐╤А╨╕╤П╤В╨╕╨╣ ╨╖╨░ 10 ╨╗╨╡╤В.
- ╨н╤В╨╛╤В ╨╛╤Б╨╜╨╛╨▓╨░╨╜╨╜╤Л╨╣ ╨╜╨░ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╨░╤Е ╨░╨╜╨░╨╗╨╕╨╖ ╨┐╨╛╨╝╨╛╨│╨░╨╡╤В ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨░╨╝ ╨┤╨╡╨╗╨░╤В╤М ╨┐╤А╨╛╨│╨╜╨╛╨╖╤Л ╨┤╨▓╨╕╨╢╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╤А╤Л╨╜╨║╨░ ╨╜╨░ ╨▒╤Г╨┤╤Г╤Й╨╡╨╡, ╤Г╤З╨╕╤В╤Л╨▓╨░╤П ╨┐╤А╨╛╤И╨╗╤Л╨╡ ╨╖╨░╨┐╨╕╤Б╨╕.
- ╨б╨╛╨╛╤В╨╜╨╛╤И╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╤Б╨┐╨╡╤Ж╨╕╨░╨╗╤М╨╜╨╛ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨╝╨╡╨╜╤П╨╡╤В╤Б╤П ╨║ ╨╕╨╜╨┤╨╡╨║╤Б╨░╨╝, ╨┐╨╛╨╖╨▓╨╛╨╗╤П╤П ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨░╨╝ ╤Б╤В╤А╨╛╨╕╤В╤М ╤Б╤В╤А╨░╤В╨╡╨│╨╕╨╕ ╨╕ ╤А╨╡╤И╨░╤В╤М, ╤Б╤В╨╛╨╕╤В ╨╗╨╕ ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╕╤А╨╛╨▓╨░╤В╤М ╨▓ ╨┤╨░╨╜╨╜╤Л╨╣ ╨║╨╛╨╜╨║╤А╨╡╤В╨╜╤Л╨╣ ╨╝╨╛╨╝╨╡╨╜╤В.
- ╨Ю╨╜ ╤Г╤З╨╕╤В╤Л╨▓╨░╨╡╤В ╤Н╨║╨╛╨╜╨╛╨╝╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╨╡ ╨╕╨╖╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П, ╨║╨╛╤В╨╛╤А╤Л╨╡ ╤Б╨╕╨╗╤М╨╜╨╛ ╨▓╨╗╨╕╤П╤О╤В ╨╜╨░ ╤Ж╨╕╨║╨╗╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╨╣ ╨▒╨╕╨╖╨╜╨╡╤Б, ╨┤╨░╨▓╨░╤П ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨░╨╝ ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╤Б╤В╨░╨▓╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨╛ ╤В╨╛╨╝, ╨┐╨╡╤А╨╡╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜╤Л ╨╗╨╕ ╤А╤Л╨╜╨║╨╕ ╨╕╨╗╨╕ ╨╜╨╡╨┤╨╛╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜╤Л.
╨Ъ╨░╨║ ╤А╨░╨▒╨╛╤В╨░╨╡╤В ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В CAPE?
╨Ъ╨╛╨╜╤Ж╨╡╨┐╤Ж╨╕╤П CAPE Ratio ╨▒╤Л╨╗╨░ ╤А╨░╨╖╤А╨░╨▒╨╛╤В╨░╨╜╨░ ╨┐╤А╨╛╤Д╨╡╤Б╤Б╨╛╤А╨╛╨╝ ╨а╨╛╨▒╨╡╤А╤В╨╛╨╝ ╨и╨╕╨╗╨╗╨╡╤А╨╛╨╝ ╨╕╨╖ ╨Щ╨╡╨╗╤М╤Б╨║╨╛╨│╨╛ ╤Г╨╜╨╕╨▓╨╡╤А╤Б╨╕╤В╨╡╤В╨░ ╨┤╨╗╤П ╨╕╨╖╤Г╤З╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╨▓╨╗╨╕╤П╨╜╨╕╤П ╤Н╨║╨╛╨╜╨╛╨╝╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╤Е ╨▓╨╖╨╗╨╡╤В╨╛╨▓ ╨╕ ╨┐╨░╨┤╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╣ ╨╜╨░ ╤Б╨╛╨╛╤В╨╜╨╛╤И╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨╕╨╜╨┤╨╡╨║╤Б╨╛╨▓ ┬л╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨░-╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М┬╗ (PE). ╨Ъ╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В PE, ╨║╨░╨║ ╤Б╨╗╨╡╨┤╤Г╨╡╤В ╨╕╨╖ ╨╜╨░╨╖╨▓╨░╨╜╨╕╤П, ╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨╕╨▓╨░╨╡╤В ╤Ж╨╡╨╜╤Л ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╨╣ ╨┐╨╛ ╨╛╤В╨╜╨╛╤И╨╡╨╜╨╕╤О ╨║ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╨╕ ╨╜╨░ ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╤О. ╨Я╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М ╨╜╨░ ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╤О ╨Я╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М ╨╜╨░ ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╤О (EPS) ╤П╨▓╨╗╤П╨╡╤В╤Б╤П ╨║╨╗╤О╤З╨╡╨▓╤Л╨╝ ╤Д╨╕╨╜╨░╨╜╤Б╨╛╨▓╤Л╨╝ ╨┐╨╛╨║╨░╨╖╨░╤В╨╡╨╗╨╡╨╝, ╨║╨╛╤В╨╛╤А╤Л╨╣ ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╤Л ╨╕╤Б╨┐╨╛╨╗╤М╨╖╤Г╤О╤В ╨┤╨╗╤П ╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨║╨╕ ╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╡╨║╤В╨╕╨▓╨╜╨╛╤Б╤В╨╕ ╨╕ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М╨╜╨╛╤Б╤В╨╕ ╨║╨╛╨╝╨┐╨░╨╜╨╕╨╕ ╨┐╨╡╤А╨╡╨┤ ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╕╤А╨╛╨▓╨░╨╜╨╕╨╡╨╝. ╨Ю╨╜ ╤А╨░╤Б╤Б╤З╨╕╤В╤Л╨▓╨░╨╡╤В╤Б╤П ╨┐╤Г╤В╨╡╨╝ ╨┤╨╡╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╨╛╨▒╤Й╨╡╨╣ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╨╕ ╨╕╨╗╨╕ ╨╛╨▒╤Й╨╡╨╣ ╤З╨╕╤Б╤В╨╛╨╣ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╨╕ ╨╜╨░ ╨╛╨▒╤Й╨╡╨╡ ╨║╨╛╨╗╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╤В╨▓╨╛ ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╨╣ ╨▓ ╨╛╨▒╤А╨░╤Й╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╕. ╨з╨╡╨╝ ╨▓╤Л╤И╨╡ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М ╨╜╨░ ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╤О (EPS), ╤В╨╡╨╝ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М╨╜╨╡╨╡ ╨║╨╛╨╝╨┐╨░╨╜╨╕╤П. ╨з╨╕╤В╨░╤В╤М ╨┤╨░╨╗╨╡╨╡ (EPS). ╨а╤Л╨╜╨║╨╕ ╤В╨░╨║╨╢╨╡ ╨╜╨░╨╖╤Л╨▓╨░╤О╤В ╤Н╤В╨╛╤В ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В ╨и╨╕╨╗╨╗╨╡╤А╨╛╨╝ PE Ratio.
╨Ш╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╤Л ╨┐╤А╨╕╨╝╨╡╨╜╤П╤О╤В ╤Н╤В╨╛ ╤Б╨╛╨╛╤В╨╜╨╛╤И╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨║ ╨╕╨╜╨┤╨╡╨║╤Б╨░╨╝, ╤З╤В╨╛╨▒╤Л ╨┐╤А╨╛╨▓╨╡╤А╨╕╤В╤М, ╨┐╨╡╤А╨╡╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜ ╨╗╨╕ ╤А╤Л╨╜╨╛╨║ ╨╕╨╗╨╕ ╨╜╨╡╨┤╨╛╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜. ╨Я╨╛╨╗╤Г╤З╨╕╨▓ ╤З╨╡╤В╨║╨╛╨╡ ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╤Б╤В╨░╨▓╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨╛ ╤А╤Л╨╜╨║╨╡, ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╤Л ╨╝╨╛╨│╤Г╤В ╨╗╨╡╨│╨║╨╛ ╤Б╤Д╨╛╤А╨╝╤Г╨╗╨╕╤А╨╛╨▓╨░╤В╤М ╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╡╨║╤В╨╕╨▓╨╜╤Л╨╡ ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╛╨╜╨╜╤Л╨╡ ╤Б╤В╤А╨░╤В╨╡╨│╨╕╨╕. ╨╕ ╤В.┬а╨┤. ╨г╨╖╨╜╨░╨╣╤В╨╡ ╨▒╨╛╨╗╤М╤И╨╡ ╨╕ ╤А╨╡╤И╨╕╤В╨╡, ╨║╨╛╨│╨┤╨░ ╨╗╤Г╤З╤И╨╡ ╨┐╨╛╨║╤Г╨┐╨░╤В╤М ╨╕╨╗╨╕ ╨┐╤А╨╛╨┤╨░╨▓╨░╤В╤М ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╨╕. ╨Ъ╤А╨╛╨╝╨╡ ╤В╨╛╨│╨╛, ╤Н╤В╨╕ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╤Л ╨░╨╜╨░╨╗╨╕╨╖╨╕╤А╤Г╤О╤В ╨▓╨╗╨╕╤П╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╤Н╨║╨╛╨╜╨╛╨╝╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╤Е ╨╕╨╖╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╣ ╨╜╨░ ╤А╤Л╨╜╨╛╨║ ╨┤╨╗╤П ╨┐╤А╨╕╨╜╤П╤В╨╕╤П ╨┤╨░╨╗╤М╨╜╨╡╨╣╤И╨╕╤Е ╤А╨╡╤И╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╣.
╨Ъ╨╛╨│╨┤╨░ ╤Н╨║╨╛╨╜╨╛╨╝╨╕╨║╨░ ╤А╨░╤Б╤И╨╕╤А╤П╨╡╤В╤Б╤П, ╨┐╨╛╤В╤А╨╡╨▒╨╕╤В╨╡╨╗╨╕ ╤В╤А╨░╤В╤П╤В ╨▒╨╛╨╗╤М╤И╨╡ ╨╜╨░ ╨┐╨╛╨║╤Г╨┐╨║╤Г ╨┐╤А╨╛╨┤╤Г╨║╤В╨╛╨▓ ╨╕ ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╨╝╨╡╤В╨╛╨▓. ╨в╨░╨║╨╕╨╝ ╨╛╨▒╤А╨░╨╖╨╛╨╝, ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М ╤А╨░╤Б╤В╨╡╤В, ╤З╤В╨╛ ╨┐╨╛╨╗╨╛╨╢╨╕╤В╨╡╨╗╤М╨╜╨╛ ╨▓╨╗╨╕╤П╨╡╤В ╨╜╨░ ╨╕╨╜╨┤╨╡╨║╤Б╤Л. ╨б ╨┤╤А╤Г╨│╨╛╨╣ ╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨╛╨╜╤Л, ╨▓╨╛ ╨▓╤А╨╡╨╝╤П ╤А╨╡╤Ж╨╡╤Б╤Б╨╕╨╣ ╤А╤Л╨╜╨╛╨║ ╨╕╤Б╨┐╤Л╤В╤Л╨▓╨░╨╡╤В ╨╜╨╡╨│╨░╤В╨╕╨▓╨╜╨╛╨╡ ╤Ж╨╕╨║╨╗╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╛╨╡ ╨▓╨╛╨╖╨┤╨╡╨╣╤Б╤В╨▓╨╕╨╡. ╨Я╨╛╤Б╨║╨╛╨╗╤М╨║╤Г ╤Н╨║╨╛╨╜╨╛╨╝╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╨╡ ╨┐╨╛╤В╤А╤П╤Б╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╨╛╤В╤А╨╕╤Ж╨░╤В╨╡╨╗╤М╨╜╨╛ ╤Б╨║╨░╨╖╤Л╨▓╨░╤О╤В╤Б╤П ╨╜╨░ ╨╖╨░╨╜╤П╤В╨╛╤Б╤В╨╕ ╨╕ ╤Г╤А╨╛╨▓╨╜╨╡ ╨┤╨╛╤Е╨╛╨┤╨╛╨▓ ╨┐╨╛╤В╤А╨╡╨▒╨╕╤В╨╡╨╗╨╡╨╣, ╨╕╤Е ╨┐╨╛╨║╤Г╨┐╨░╤В╨╡╨╗╤М╨╜╨░╤П ╤Б╨┐╨╛╤Б╨╛╨▒╨╜╨╛╤Б╤В╤М ╤Б╨╜╨╕╨╢╨░╨╡╤В╤Б╤П, ╨╕ ╨╛╨╜╨╕ ╤В╤А╨░╤В╤П╤В ╨╝╨╡╨╜╤М╤И╨╡ ╨╜╨░ ╨┐╨╛╨║╤Г╨┐╨║╨╕. ╨н╤В╨╛, ╨▓ ╤Б╨▓╨╛╤О ╨╛╤З╨╡╤А╨╡╨┤╤М, ╤Б╨╜╨╕╨╢╨░╨╡╤В ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М ╨║╨╛╨╝╨┐╨░╨╜╨╕╨╣, ╤З╤В╨╛ ╨▓╨╗╨╕╤П╨╡╤В ╨╜╨░ ╤Г╤А╨╛╨▓╨╡╨╜╤М ╨╖╨░╨╜╤П╤В╨╛╤Б╤В╨╕ ╨╕ ╨┤╨╛╤Е╨╛╨┤╤Л ╨┐╤А╨╛╤Б╤В╤Л╤Е ╨╗╤О╨┤╨╡╨╣.
╨д╨╛╤А╨╝╤Г╨╗╨░
╨д╨╛╤А╨╝╤Г╨╗╨░, ╨║╨╛╤В╨╛╤А╨░╤П ╨┐╨╛╨╝╨╛╨│╨░╨╡╤В ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨░╨╝ ╤А╨░╤Б╤Б╤З╨╕╤В╨░╤В╤М ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В CAPE, ╨▓╤Л╨│╨╗╤П╨┤╨╕╤В ╤Б╨╗╨╡╨┤╤Г╤О╤Й╨╕╨╝ ╨╛╨▒╤А╨░╨╖╨╛╨╝:
╨Ъ╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В CAPE = ╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨░ ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╨╕ / ╤Б╤А╨╡╨┤╨╜╤П╤П ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М ╨╖╨░ 10 ╨╗╨╡╤В ╤Б ╨┐╨╛╨┐╤А╨░╨▓╨║╨╛╨╣ ╨╜╨░ ╨╕╨╜╤Д╨╗╤П╤Ж╨╕╤О
╨Я╤А╨╕╨╝╨╡╤А╤Л
╨а╨░╤Б╤Б╨╝╨╛╤В╤А╨╕╨╝ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨╝╨╡╤А╤Л, ╤З╤В╨╛╨▒╤Л ╨┐╨╛╨╜╤П╤В╤М ╤А╨░╤Б╤З╨╡╤В ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╨░:
╨Я╤А╨╕╨╝╨╡╤А 1
╨Э╨░ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▓╨╡╨┤╨╡╨╜╨╜╨╛╨╝ ╨╜╨╕╨╢╨╡ ╨╗╨╕╤Б╤В╨╡ Excel ╨┐╨╛╨║╨░╨╖╨░╨╜╤Л ╨┤╨░╨╜╨╜╤Л╨╡ EPS ╨╖╨░ ╨┐╨╛╤Б╨╗╨╡╨┤╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨┤╨╡╤Б╤П╤В╤М ╨╗╨╡╤В, ╤Б╨║╨╛╤А╤А╨╡╨║╤В╨╕╤А╨╛╨▓╨░╨╜╨╜╤Л╨╡ ╨┐╤Г╤В╨╡╨╝ ╤Г╨┤╨░╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╤Д╨░╨║╤В╨╛╤А╨░ ╨╕╨╜╤Д╨╗╤П╤Ж╨╕╨╕ ╨╕╨╖ EPS ╨║╨░╨╢╨┤╨╛╨│╨╛ ╨│╨╛╨┤╨░, ╤З╤В╨╛╨▒╤Л ╨┐╨╛╨╗╤Г╤З╨╕╤В╤М ╨┐╤А╨░╨▓╨╕╨╗╤М╨╜╤Г╤О ╤Б╨╛╨┐╨╛╤Б╤В╨░╨▓╨╕╨╝╤Г╤О ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М ╨╜╨░ ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╤О. ╨Э╨░ ╨╗╨╕╤Б╤В╨╡ ╤В╨░╨║╨╢╨╡ ╨┐╨╛╨║╨░╨╖╨░╨╜╨╛ ╤Б╤А╨╡╨┤╨╜╨╡╨╡ ╨╖╨╜╨░╤З╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╨╕ ╨╜╨░ ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╤О ╤Б ╨┐╨╛╨┐╤А╨░╨▓╨║╨╛╨╣ ╨╜╨░ ╨╕╨╜╤Д╨╗╤П╤Ж╨╕╤О ╨╖╨░ 10 ╨╗╨╡╤В.
╨Ъ╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В CAPE = ╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨░ ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╨╕ / ╤Б╤А╨╡╨┤╨╜╤П╤П ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╤М ╨╖╨░ 10 ╨╗╨╡╤В ╤Б ╨┐╨╛╨┐╤А╨░╨▓╨║╨╛╨╣ ╨╜╨░ ╨╕╨╜╤Д╨╗╤П╤Ж╨╕╤О
╨Ъ╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В CAPE = 1000/52,13 = 19,12
╨Ю╨╜ ╨┐╨╛╨║╨░╨╖╤Л╨▓╨░╨╡╤В, ╤З╤В╨╛, ╨╜╨╡╤Б╨╝╨╛╤В╤А╤П ╨╜╨░ ╤В╨╡╨║╤Г╤Й╨╕╨╣ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В PE, ╤А╨░╨▓╨╜╤Л╨╣ 10, ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В PE CAPE ╨╕╨╗╨╕ ╨и╨╕╨╗╨╗╨╡╤А╨░ ╤Б╨╛╤Б╤В╨░╨▓╨╗╤П╨╡╤В 19,12, ╤З╤В╨╛ ╤Г╨║╨░╨╖╤Л╨▓╨░╨╡╤В ╨╜╨░ ╨╖╨░╨▓╤Л╤И╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨╕╨╜╨┤╨╡╨║╤Б╨░.
╨Я╤А╨╕╨╝╨╡╤А 2
╨Ф╨░╨▓╨░╨╣╤В╨╡ ╨▓╨╛╨╖╤М╨╝╨╡╨╝ ╨┤╤А╤Г╨│╨╛╨╣ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨╝╨╡╤А, ╤З╤В╨╛╨▒╤Л ╨╗╤Г╤З╤И╨╡ ╨┐╨╛╨╜╤П╤В╤М ╤Н╤В╤Г ╨║╨╛╨╜╤Ж╨╡╨┐╤Ж╨╕╤О. ╨Э╨╕╨╢╨╡ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▓╨╡╨┤╨╡╨╜╤Л ╨┤╨╡╤В╨░╨╗╨╕ ╨┤╨╗╤П ╤А╨░╤Б╤З╨╡╤В╨░ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╨░ CAPE ╨┤╨╗╤П S&P 500.
- ╨б╨╛╨╛╤В╨╜╨╛╤И╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ PE = 16
- ╨Ъ╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В ╨╝╤Л╤Б╨░ = 32
- ╨Ш╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╨╣ ╤Б╤А╨╡╨┤╨╜╨╕╨╣ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В PE = 17
╨Ш╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╨╣ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В PE, ╨╛╤Б╨╜╨╛╨▓╨░╨╜╨╜╤Л╨╣ ╨╜╨░ ╨┐╤А╨╛╤Б╤В╤Л╤Е ╤Б╤А╨╡╨┤╨╜╨╕╤Е, ╨░╨╜╨░╨╗╨╛╨│╨╕╤З╨╡╨╜ ╤В╨╡╨║╤Г╤Й╨╡╨╝╤Г ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╤Г PE ╨▓ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▓╨╡╨┤╨╡╨╜╨╜╨╛╨╝ ╨▓╤Л╤И╨╡ ╤Б╨╗╤Г╤З╨░╨╡. ╨в╨╡╨╝ ╨╜╨╡ ╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╡, ╨╕╨╜╨┤╨╡╨║╤Б ╤Б╨╕╨╗╤М╨╜╨╛ ╨╖╨░╨▓╤Л╤И╨╡╨╜, ╨╡╤Б╨╗╨╕ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨╜╤П╤В╤М ╨▓╨╛ ╨▓╨╜╨╕╨╝╨░╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В PE ╨и╨╕╨╗╨╗╨╡╤А╨░, ╨║╨╛╤В╨╛╤А╤Л╨╣ ╨▒╨╡╤А╨╡╤В ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В PE ╤Б ╨┐╨╛╨┐╤А╨░╨▓╨║╨╛╨╣ ╨╜╨░ ╨╕╨╜╤Д╨╗╤П╤Ж╨╕╤О ╨╖╨░ ╨┐╨╛╤Б╨╗╨╡╨┤╨╜╨╕╨╡ 10 ╨╗╨╡╤В. ╨н╤В╨╛ ╨┤╨░╨╡╤В ╨╗╤Г╤З╤И╨╡╨╡ ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╤Б╤В╨░╨▓╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨╛ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╨╡ PE ╨╕╨╜╨┤╨╡╨║╤Б╨░ ╨╕ ╨┐╨╛╨╖╨▓╨╛╨╗╤П╨╡╤В ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨░╨╝ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨╜╨╕╨╝╨░╤В╤М ╨╛╨▒╨╛╤Б╨╜╨╛╨▓╨░╨╜╨╜╤Л╨╡ ╤А╨╡╤И╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П.
╨Ш╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╤Л ╨╜╨╡ ╨┤╨╛╨╗╨╢╨╜╤Л ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╕╤А╨╛╨▓╨░╤В╤М ╨▓ ╤В╨╡╨║╤Г╤Й╨╕╨╣ ╤А╤Л╨╜╨╛╨║ ╤Б ╨▓╤Л╤Б╨╛╨║╨╕╨╝╨╕ ╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨░╨╝╨╕, ╨║╨░╨║ ╤Н╤В╨╛ ╨╛╤В╤А╨░╨╢╨╡╨╜╨╛ ╨▓ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╨╡ CAPE, ╨┤╨╛ ╤В╨╡╤Е ╨┐╨╛╤А, ╨┐╨╛╨║╨░ ╨╜╨╡ ╨┐╤А╨╛╨╕╨╖╨╛╨╣╨┤╨╡╤В ╨║╨╛╤А╤А╨╡╨║╤Ж╨╕╤П. ╨Т ╤А╨╡╨╖╤Г╨╗╤М╤В╨░╤В╨╡ ╤Н╤В╨╛╤В ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В ╨╜╨╡╨╝╨╜╨╛╨│╨╛ ╤Б╨╜╨╕╨╢╨░╨╡╤В╤Б╤П ╨╕ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╨╗╨╕╨╢╨░╨╡╤В╤Б╤П ╨║ ╨╛╨▒╤Л╤З╨╜╨╛ ╨╛╨╢╨╕╨┤╨░╨╡╨╝╨╛╨╝╤Г ╨┤╨╗╤П ╤А╤Л╨╜╨║╨╛╨▓ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╤Г PE.
╨Ш╨╜╤В╨╡╤А╨┐╤А╨╡╤В╨░╤Ж╨╕╤П
╨Ъ╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В CAPE ╨и╨╕╨╗╨╗╨╡╤А╨░ ╤Г╨║╨░╨╖╤Л╨▓╨░╨╡╤В ╨╜╨░ ╨╜╨░╨┤╨╡╨╢╨╜╤Г╤О ╤Б╨▓╤П╨╖╤М ╤Б ╨▒╤Г╨┤╤Г╤Й╨╕╨╝╨╕ ╨┤╨╛╤Е╨╛╨┤╨░╨╝╨╕. ╨б╨╗╨╡╨┤╨╛╨▓╨░╤В╨╡╨╗╤М╨╜╨╛, ╤З╨╡╨╝ ╨╜╨╕╨╢╨╡ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╤Л, ╤В╨╡╨╝ ╨▓╤Л╤И╨╡ ╨╛╨╢╨╕╨┤╨░╨╡╨╝╨░╤П ╨┤╨╛╤Е╨╛╨┤╨╜╨╛╤Б╤В╤М ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨╛╨▓. ╨в╨╡╨╝ ╨╜╨╡ ╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╡, ╨╗╤О╨┤╨╕ ╤З╨░╤Б╤В╨╛ ╨║╤А╨╕╤В╨╕╨║╤Г╤О╤В ╤Н╤В╨╛╤В ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В ╨╖╨░ ╤В╨╛, ╤З╤В╨╛ ╨╛╨╜ ╨╜╨╡ ╤Г╤З╨╕╤В╤Л╨▓╨░╨╡╤В ╨╕╨╖╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П, ╨▓╤А╨╡╨╝╤П ╨╛╤В ╨▓╤А╨╡╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╕ ╨▓╨╜╨╛╤Б╨╕╨╝╤Л╨╡ ╨▓ ╨┐╤А╨░╨▓╨╕╨╗╨░ ╨▒╤Г╤Е╨│╨░╨╗╤В╨╡╤А╤Б╨║╨╛╨╣ ╨╛╤В╤З╨╡╤В╨╜╨╛╤Б╤В╨╕.
╨Я╨╗╤О╤Б, ╨У╤А╨░╤Д╨╕╨║ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╨░ CAPE ╤П╨▓╨╗╤П╨╡╤В╤Б╤П ╨▒╨╛╨╗╨╡╨╡ ╨╝╨░╤В╨╡╨╝╨░╤В╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╨╝, ╤З╤В╨╛ ╨┤╨╡╨╗╨░╨╡╤В ╨╡╨│╨╛ ╨┤╨╛╨▓╨╛╨╗╤М╨╜╨╛ ╤Б╨╗╨╛╨╢╨╜╤Л╨╝ ╨┤╨╗╤П ╨╕╤Б╨┐╨╛╨╗╤М╨╖╨╛╨▓╨░╨╜╨╕╤П ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨░╨╝╨╕. ╨Ъ╤А╨╛╨╝╨╡ ╤В╨╛╨│╨╛, ╨┐╨╛╤Б╨║╨╛╨╗╤М╨║╤Г ╨╛╨╜ ╨╕╨│╨╜╨╛╤А╨╕╤А╤Г╨╡╤В ╨┐╨╛╤Б╨╗╨╡╨┤╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨╕╨╖╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╨▓ ╨┐╤А╨░╨▓╨╕╨╗╨░╤Е ╨▒╤Г╤Е╨│╨░╨╗╤В╨╡╤А╤Б╨║╨╛╨│╨╛ ╤Г╤З╨╡╤В╨░, ╤В╨░╨║╨╕╤Е ╨║╨░╨║ ╨Ю╨▒╤Й╨╡╨┐╤А╨╕╨╜╤П╤В╤Л╨╡ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨╜╤Ж╨╕╨┐╤Л ╨▒╤Г╤Е╨│╨░╨╗╤В╨╡╤А╤Б╨║╨╛╨│╨╛ ╤Г╤З╨╡╤В╨░ (GAAP), ╨╛╨╜ ╤Б╤В╨░╨╜╨╛╨▓╨╕╤В╤Б╤П ╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╡ ╨┐╤А╨░╨║╤В╨╕╤З╨╜╤Л╨╝ ╨╕╨╜╤Б╤В╤А╤Г╨╝╨╡╨╜╤В╨╛╨╝ ╨┤╨╗╤П ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨╛╨▓. ╨Ъ╤А╨╛╨╝╨╡ ╤В╨╛╨│╨╛, ╨╛╨╜ ╨╕╨│╨╜╨╛╤А╨╕╤А╤Г╨╡╤В ╤Д╤Г╨╜╨║╤Ж╨╕╤О ╤Б╨┐╤А╨╛╤Б╨░-╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╨╗╨╛╨╢╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П, ╨║╨╛╤В╨╛╤А╨░╤П ╤П╨▓╨╗╤П╨╡╤В╤Б╤П ╨╛╤Б╨╜╨╛╨▓╨╛╨╣ ╤Н╨║╨╛╨╜╨╛╨╝╨╕╨║╨╕. ╨Ъ╤А╨╛╨╝╨╡ ╤В╨╛╨│╨╛, ╨╡╨│╨╛ ╨┐╨╛╤З╤В╨╕ ╨╜╨╡ ╨▒╨╡╤Б╨┐╨╛╨║╨╛╤П╤В ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╨┐╨╛╤З╤В╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╨╕ ╤Б╤Е╨╡╨╝╤Л ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╕╤А╨╛╨▓╨░╨╜╨╕╤П, ╨║╨╛╤В╨╛╤А╤Л╨╡ ╤Б╨╛ ╨▓╤А╨╡╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╝ ╨╝╨╡╨╜╤П╤О╤В╤Б╤П.
╨Я╤А╨╡╨╕╨╝╤Г╤Й╨╡╤Б╤В╨▓╨░ ╨╜╨╡╨┤╨╛╤Б╤В╨░╤В╨║╨╕
╨Ъ╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В ╨и╨╕╨╗╨╗╨╡╤А╨░ PE ╨╛╨▒╤Л╤З╨╜╨╛ ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╤Б╨║╨░╨╖╤Л╨▓╨░╨╡╤В ╨▒╤Г╨┤╤Г╤Й╤Г╤О ╨┤╨╛╤Е╨╛╨┤╨╜╨╛╤Б╤В╤М ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╨╕ ╨╕╨╗╨╕ ╨╕╨╜╨┤╨╡╨║╤Б╨░ ╨▓ ╨▒╨╗╨╕╨╢╨░╨╣╤И╨╕╨╡ 10-20 ╨╗╨╡╤В, ╨╕╤Б╨┐╨╛╨╗╤М╨╖╤Г╤П ╨╕╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╨╡ ╨┤╨░╨╜╨╜╤Л╨╡ ╨╖╨░ ╨┤╨╡╤Б╤П╤В╤М ╨╗╨╡╤В ╨╕ ╨║╨╛╤А╤А╨╡╨║╤В╨╕╤А╤Г╤П ╨╕╤Е ╤Б ╤Г╤З╨╡╤В╨╛╨╝ ╤Д╨░╨║╤В╨╛╤А╨░ ╨╕╨╜╤Д╨╗╤П╤Ж╨╕╨╕, ╤З╤В╨╛╨▒╤Л ╨┐╨╛╨╗╤Г╤З╨╕╤В╤М ╨┐╤А╨░╨▓╨╕╨╗╤М╨╜╨╛╨╡ ╨║╨╛╨╗╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╤В╨▓╨╛ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╨╕ ╨╜╨░ ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╤О.
╨Ю╨┤╨╜╨╕╨╝ ╨╕╨╖ ╨╜╨╡╨┤╨╛╤Б╤В╨░╤В╨║╨╛╨▓ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╨░ CAPE ╤П╨▓╨╗╤П╨╡╤В╤Б╤П ╤В╨╛, ╤З╤В╨╛ ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╤Л ╨╜╨╡ ╨╝╨╛╨│╤Г╤В ╤Б╤А╨░╨▓╨╜╨╕╨▓╨░╤В╤М ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╨┐╤А╨╕╤П╤В╨╕╤П ╨╜╨░ ╨╛╤Б╨╜╨╛╨▓╨╡ ╨╕╤Е ╤А╨╡╨╖╤Г╨╗╤М╤В╨░╤В╨╛╨▓ 10 ╨╗╨╡╤В ╨╜╨░╨╖╨░╨┤ ╨╕ ╤Б╨╡╨│╨╛╨┤╨╜╤П. ╨н╤В╨╛ ╨┐╨╛╤В╨╛╨╝╤Г, ╤З╤В╨╛ ╨╛╨╜ ╨╜╨╡ ╤Г╤З╨╕╤В╤Л╨▓╨░╨╡╤В ╤Г╨▓╨╡╨╗╨╕╤З╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╤Б╨┐╤А╨╛╤Б╨░ ╨╜╨░ ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╕ ╨▓ ╤Д╨╛╨╜╨┤╨╛╨▓╤Л╨╡ ╤А╤Л╨╜╨║╨╕, ╨║╨░╨║ ╤Н╤В╨╛ ╨▒╤Л╨╗╨╛ 10 ╨╗╨╡╤В ╨╜╨░╨╖╨░╨┤.
╨з╨░╤Б╤В╨╛ ╨╖╨░╨┤╨░╨▓╨░╨╡╨╝╤Л╨╡ ╨▓╨╛╨┐╤А╨╛╤Б╤Л (FAQ)
╨з╤В╨╛ ╤В╨░╨║╨╛╨╡ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В CAPE?
╨Ю╨▒╤Л╤З╨╜╨╛ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨╝╨╡╨╜╤П╨╡╤В╤Б╤П ╨║ ╨╕╨╜╨┤╨╡╨║╤Б╨░╨╝. ╨н╤В╨╛ ╨╝╨╜╨╛╨╢╨╡╤Б╤В╨▓╨╡╨╜╨╜╨░╤П ╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨║╨░ ╤З╨░╤Б╤В╨╜╨╛╨│╨╛ ╨║╨░╨┐╨╕╤В╨░╨╗╨░, ╤А╨░╤Б╤Б╤З╨╕╤В╨░╨╜╨╜╨░╤П ╤Б ╨╕╤Б╨┐╨╛╨╗╤М╨╖╨╛╨▓╨░╨╜╨╕╨╡╨╝ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨▒╤Л╨╗╨╕ ╨╜╨░ ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╤О ╤Б ╨┐╨╛╨┐╤А╨░╨▓╨║╨╛╨╣ ╨╜╨░ ╤Ж╨╕╨║╨╗╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╨╡ ╤Н╨║╨╛╨╜╨╛╨╝╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╕╨╡ ╨╕╨╖╨╝╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╨╕ ╨╕╨╜╤Д╨╗╤П╤Ж╨╕╤О. ╨а╨░╨╖╤А╨░╨▒╨╛╤В╨░╨╜ ╨а╨╛╨▒╨╡╤А╤В ╨и╨╕╨╗╨╗╨╡╤А, ╨┐╤А╨╛╤Д╨╡╤Б╤Б╨╛╤А ╨Щ╨╡╨╗╤М╤Б╨║╨╛╨│╨╛ ╤Г╨╜╨╕╨▓╨╡╤А╤Б╨╕╤В╨╡╤В╨░ ╨▓ ╨б╨и╨Р, ╨░╨╜╨░╨╗╨╕╨╖╨╕╤А╤Г╨╡╤В ╨▓╨╗╨╕╤П╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╤Н╨║╨╛╨╜╨╛╨╝╨╕╤З╨╡╤Б╨║╨╛╨╣ ╤Б╨╕╤В╤Г╨░╤Ж╨╕╨╕ ╨╜╨░ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В PE ╨╕╨╜╨┤╨╡╨║╤Б╨╛╨▓. ╨н╤В╨╛ ╨┤╨░╨╡╤В ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╤Г ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╤Б╤В╨░╨▓╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡ ╨╛ ╤В╨╛╨╝, ╨┐╨╡╤А╨╡╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜╤Л ╨╗╨╕ ╤А╤Л╨╜╨║╨╕ ╨╕╨╗╨╕ ╨╜╨╡╨┤╨╛╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜╤Л.
╨Ъ╨░╨║ ╤А╨░╤Б╤Б╤З╨╕╤В╨░╤В╤М ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В CAPE?
╨Ъ╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В ╤А╨░╤Б╤Б╤З╨╕╤В╤Л╨▓╨░╨╡╤В╤Б╤П ╨┐╤Г╤В╨╡╨╝ ╨┤╨╡╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╕╤П ╤Ж╨╡╨╜╤Л ╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╨╕ ╨╜╨░ ╤Б╤А╨╡╨┤╨╜╨╕╨╣ ╨┤╨╛╤Е╨╛╨┤ ╨▒╨╕╨╖╨╜╨╡╤Б╨░ ╨╖╨░ 10 ╨╗╨╡╤В. ╨н╤В╨╛╤В ╨┤╨╛╤Е╨╛╨┤ ╤Б╨║╨╛╤А╤А╨╡╨║╤В╨╕╤А╨╛╨▓╨░╨╜ ╤Б ╤Г╤З╨╡╤В╨╛╨╝ ╨╕╨╜╤Д╨╗╤П╤Ж╨╕╨╕.
╨з╤В╨╛ ╤В╨░╨║╨╛╨╡ ╤Е╨╛╤А╨╛╤И╨╕╨╣ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В CAPE?
╨Ъ╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В ╨и╨╕╨╗╨╗╨╡╤А╨░ PE ╨▓ ╨┤╨╕╨░╨┐╨░╨╖╨╛╨╜╨╡ ╨╛╤В 10 ╨┤╨╛ 15 ╤Б╤З╨╕╤В╨░╨╡╤В╤Б╤П ╨╕╨┤╨╡╨░╨╗╤М╨╜╤Л╨╝. ╨Ю╨┤╨╜╨░╨║╨╛, ╨╡╤Б╨╗╨╕ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В ╨▓╤Л╤И╨╡ 20, ╤А╤Л╨╜╨╛╨║ ╨┐╨╡╤А╨╡╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨╡╨╜. ╨н╤В╨╛ ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╤Г╨┐╤А╨╡╨╢╨┤╨░╨╡╤В ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А╨╛╨▓ ╨╢╨┤╨░╤В╤М ╨┐╨╛╨┤╤Е╨╛╨┤╤П╤Й╨╡╨│╨╛ ╨╝╨╛╨╝╨╡╨╜╤В╨░ ╨┤╨╗╤П ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╕╤А╨╛╨▓╨░╨╜╨╕╤П. ╨Ю╨┤╨╜╨░╨║╨╛ ╤Н╤В╨╛╤В ╨╕╨┤╨╡╨░╨╗╤М╨╜╤Л╨╣ ╨┤╨╕╨░╨┐╨░╨╖╨╛╨╜ ╨╝╨╛╨╢╨╡╤В ╨╛╤В╨╗╨╕╤З╨░╤В╤М╤Б╤П ╨▓ ╨╖╨░╨▓╨╕╤Б╨╕╨╝╨╛╤Б╤В╨╕ ╨╛╤В ╨╛╤В╤А╨░╤Б╨╗╨╕ ╨╕╨╗╨╕ ╨╜╨╕╤И╨╕, ╨║╨╛╤В╨╛╤А╤Г╤О ╤А╨░╤Б╤Б╨╝╨░╤В╤А╨╕╨▓╨░╨╡╤В ╨╕╨╜╨▓╨╡╤Б╤В╨╛╤А.
╨а╨╡╨║╨╛╨╝╨╡╨╜╨┤╤Г╨╡╨╝╤Л╨╡ ╤Б╤В╨░╤В╤М╨╕
╨н╤В╨░ ╤Б╤В╨░╤В╤М╤П ╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╤Б╤В╨░╨▓╨╗╤П╨╡╤В ╤Б╨╛╨▒╨╛╨╣ ╤А╤Г╨║╨╛╨▓╨╛╨┤╤Б╤В╨▓╨╛ ╨┐╨╛ ╤В╨╛╨╝╤Г, ╤З╤В╨╛ ╤В╨░╨║╨╛╨╡ Cape Ratio ╨╕ ╨╡╨│╨╛ ╨╛╨┐╤А╨╡╨┤╨╡╨╗╨╡╨╜╨╕╨╡. ╨Ч╨┤╨╡╤Б╤М ╨╝╤Л ╨╛╨▒╤К╤П╤Б╨╜╤П╨╡╨╝ ╨╡╨│╨╛ ╤А╨╛╨╗╤М ╨║╨░╨║ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В╨░ ╨и╨╕╨╗╨╗╨╡╤А╨░ PE, ╨╡╨│╨╛ ╤Д╨╛╤А╨╝╤Г╨╗╤Г, ╨╕╨╜╤В╨╡╤А╨┐╤А╨╡╤В╨░╤Ж╨╕╤О ╨╕ ╨┐╤А╨╕╨╝╨╡╤А╤Л. ╨Т╤Л ╨╝╨╛╨╢╨╡╤В╨╡ ╤Г╨╖╨╜╨░╤В╤М ╨▒╨╛╨╗╤М╤И╨╡ ╨╛╨▒ ╨╛╤Ж╨╡╨╜╨║╨╡ ╨╕╨╖ ╤Б╨╗╨╡╨┤╤Г╤О╤Й╨╕╤Е ╤Б╤В╨░╤В╨╡╨╣: тАУ
- ╨з╤В╨╛ ╤В╨░╨║╨╛╨╡ ╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В ╨Ъ╨░╨╗╤М╨╝╨░╤А╨░?
- ╨Ю╨╝╨╡╨│╨░-╨║╨╛╤Н╤Д╤Д╨╕╤Ж╨╕╨╡╨╜╤В
- ╨Ш╨╜╨┤╨╡╨║╤Б ╨е╨╡╤А╤Д╨╕╨╜╨┤╨░╨╗╤П-╨е╨╕╤А╤И╨╝╨░╨╜╨░
- ╨Ь╨╜╨╛╨╢╨╡╤Б╤В╨▓╨╡╨╜╨╜╤Л╨╡ ╤В╤А╨░╨╜╨╖╨░╨║╤Ж╨╕╨╕
- ╨д╨╛╤А╨╝╤Г╨╗╨░ ╨▓╨╜╤Г╤В╤А╨╡╨╜╨╜╨╡╨│╨╛ ╤А╨╛╤Б╤В╨░
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